From the looks of it, Fox is determined to score a hit with their Tom Cruise-Cameron Diaz-starrer Knight & Day. Not only has the studio has spent gobs of money selling the romantic spy caper, but they also moved up its opening to Wednesday in order to get ahead of Adam Sandler’s big summer comedy Grown Ups. But will any of it work? Reviews have been mixed, and with a debut of $3.8 million yesterday, it’s quite possible Tom Cruise’s return to the summer blockbuster may only generate a bronze medal in this weekend’s race to the finish. Grown Ups, in contrast, is likely to do the kind of business Sony and Sandler are used to doing together when Sandler goes right down the middle with his comedies. Still, the movie everyone is talking about — Toy Story 3 — will take the top spot for the second weekend in a row. The Pixar flick, which has earned over $43 million additional dollars during the week, will likely drop around 40 percent its second weekend in theaters. Read on for my predictions.
1. Toy Story 3: $66 million
Ladies and gentleman, welcome to the summer of Pixar. Once all the dust settles on this summer of unoriginality, the one shining bright spot will be Pixar’s latest adventure following Buzz and Woody. In fact, the film was beloved by audiences over the last week, it already earned $155 million in the last six days. This movie is sure to beat Iron Man 2‘s overall gross, and will most likely become the highest-grossing film of the summer.
2. Grown Ups: $40 million
What do you get when you combine Adam Sandler, Kevin James, and Chris Rock in a summer movie about middle-aged men reminiscing about their younger years? Lots of cash. Critics don’t like the movie but that’s never stopped a Sandler comedy from earning ticket sales. This film will be no exception and adding James, whose become a box-office draw on his own, won’t hurt its broad appeal either.
3. Knight & Day: $20 million
Jury’s still out on Tom Cruise’s return as an action star. Sure he hits all the beats with this entertaining actioner, but audiences just aren’t showing up the way Fox might have hoped. Cruise and Diaz have been killing themselves on the publicity tour, but this movie may remind us once again that movie stars don’t matter any longer when it comes to the box-office.
4. The Karate Kid: $18 million
Audiences love this movie. It’s obvious looking at the numbers: It’s already made $117 million since opening two weekends ago. A 40 percent drop would put it at $18 million for the weekend, but since it’s made over $10 million during the mid-weeks alone, there is a small chance it could net bigger than Knight & Day’s three-day number. Yikes.
5. The A-Team: $8 million
Hopefully, for Fox’s sake, this 1980s remake holds in with a 40 percent drop. The film with $55 million in its coffers after two weeks of release has been spanked by Karate Kid. But it’s a big summer, and if adults aren’t into Knight & Day, maybe they’ll take another look at A-Team for a little nostalgia-fest.