June 18, 2010 at 08:34 PM EDT

The trailer for Conviction hit the Internets today (watch it below), and though the film won’t be in theaters until Oct. 15, inquiring minds are already wondering if there’s gonna be yet another showdown between Hilary Swank and Annette Bening at the Kodak Theatre next year. Directed by Tony Goldwyn (A Walk on the Moon), Conviction is a based-on-a-true-story drama with Swank starring as Betty Anne Waters, the working-class single mom who put herself through law school to overturn her brother’s (Sam Rockwell) life sentence for a murder he didn’t commit. It also stars Minnie Driver, Melissa Leo, and Peter Gallagher.

Despite — actually, make that because of — its bordering-on-hokey voice-over (“Experience the extraordinary journey…”), the trailer seems to have been tailor-made in the Oscar Bait-n-Tackle Shop. (And woah…check out Juliette Lewis’ nasty rotten teef at 1:12!) If the movie and Swank’s turn in it end up being real Oscar contenders, then there is a very good chance that she will go head-to-head in the Best Actress race with Bening, who is is getting extraordinary (and very much deserved) praise for her performance in The Kids Are All Right (July 9). Swank famously beat Bening twice before: first in 2000 for Boys Don’t Cry vs. Bening’s American Beauty, then in 2005 for Million Dollar Baby vs. Being Julia.

Obviously, it’s absurdly early to be making any real assessment of how Conviction will fare with the Academy. And of course, I’m not Dave Karger, who will surely be weighing in on this matter himself in the coming months. But anyway, check out the trailer and share your first impressions of Conviction. Oscar contender or Lifetime movie-of-the-week? Is it gonna be Swank vs. Bening, round three? Snaps for Melissa Leo!

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