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Box office preview: 'Alice' likely to hold off new releases for a third weekend

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wonderlandImage Credit: DisneyLast weekend Matt Damon and Robert Pattinson couldn’t stand up to Alice in Wonderland. Three new releases will try again this frame and all are unlikely to topple Tim Burton’s most successful outing of his career. The 3-D fantasy adventure starring Johnny Depp has already grossed over $226 million and will likely add more than $30 million more to its cume at the end of this weekend. The new releases fighting for some box office coin this weekend include: Jennifer Aniston and Gerard Butler in Bounty Hunter; Fox’s adaptation of the best-selling book Diary of a Wimpy Kid and the Jude Law-Forrest Whitaker drama Repo Men. Read on for my predictions.

1. Alice in Wonderland: $34 million

Wednesday marked the first day since Alice in Wonderland opened that the movie grossed less than $6 million during the middle of the week. That’s astounding for a film that’s been in theaters for close to three weeks. Its strong performance does not portend good things to come for next weekend’s How To Train Your Dragon which will be fighting to take 3-D screens from Disney’s Alice.

2. The Bounty Hunter: $22 million

Sony Pictures seems to be hiding this Gerard Butler-Jennifer Aniston actioner from critics. Those few who have seen it, including EW, aren’t fans, but that will mean little when it comes to this weekend. The star power of the duo will far outweigh the critical merit of the movie and this weekend, Bounty Hunter is likely to be the best-performing new release of the bunch.

3. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: $15 million

Jeff Kinney’s best-selling novel is practically a bible with boys under-12. For the author’s depiction of middle school is not only accurate but deliciously funny. The movie from director Thor Freudenthal (Hotel for Dogs) seems to have captured the same essence as the book. Only so far the film is tracking well with only his core audience, young boys. Hopefully strong word-of-mouth over the weeks to come will keep it in theaters.

4. Repo Men: $10 million

This Jude Law-Forest Whitaker R-rated action-thriller is trying to lure in the grown-up male audience not interested in The Bounty Hunter. Unfortunately, the lack of star power is not doing much to bring them in. Universal didn’t score very well with Green Zone last weekend and this weekend won’t be much better in terms of grosses hauled in at the box office. Luckily for Universal, Repo Men is relatively inexpensive with a budget in the $30 million range.

5. Green Zone: $7 million

Hopefully, this Matt Damon-starrer will fall only 50 percent this weekend. But even then the film will have only earned $26 million in 10 days.

Also opening, the Kristen Stewart, Dakota Fanning-starring rock biopic The Runaways in 244 theaters while the Ben Stiller indie drama Greenberg will bow in three theaters.