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Box office preview: Will 'Alice' crush Robert Pattinson?

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alice-in-wonderlandAudiences may have already given Alice in Wonderland over $116 million of their cold, hard cash but that doesn’t mean they don’t want to spend more time inside Tim Burton’s wildly imaginative world. As such, the Johnny Depp-starrer is all-but-guaranteed the number one spot for the second weekend in a row. Not Matt Damon as a military operative in Iraq in Green Zone nor Robert Pattinson brooding without vampire make-up in Remember Me will keep Alice in Wonderland from topping the frame yet again. Also opening this weekend is Dreamworks’ She’s Out of My League and Fox Searchlight’s romantic comedy Our Family Wedding. Read on for how the weekend will pan out.

1. Alice in Wonderland: $52 million

By the end of this weekend Alice in Wonderland will have grossed over $200 million. That’s a milestone that took Charlie and the Chocolate Factory eight weeks to reach; Sweeney Todd never even got close. Yes, 3-D is the box office miracle the business has been waiting for and this weekend that technology will do wonders to keep the vivid spectacle on top of the box office yet again. And that’s good news for Disney, which only has one more weekend to reap their dollars before Dreamworks’ How to Train Your Dragon comes looking for some family discretionary funds.

2. Green Zone: $17 million

Not even the affiliation with the beloved Bourne franchise will help this R-rated adult drama gain much traction at the box office. Yes, Matt Damon is a giant star, but this gritty war drama shot in Paul Greengrass’s kinetic, fast-paced style will have trouble drawing in the audiences. It’s not helping that the film hasn’t received the best reviews. You would guess Universal Pictures signed on to this $100 million project to keep their Bourne players happy. Too bad Greengrass has already bowed out of the next Bourne film and Damon isn’t even a shoo-in without his director pal. This is one movie Universal’s new leadership will likely blame on its previous management team.

3. Remember Me: $10 million

Yes, Robert Pattinson is the star of this plodding drama, but that doesn’t mean the Twilight star is going to draw huge box office numbers. Even the online Twitter and Facebook movements created by tween girls to support Edward Cullen this weekend are not going to do much to pull in the box office cash. And that’s really not a problem for Summit Entertainment. The film cost only $16 million and the studio has already sold off most of its international territories. In fact, a $10 million opener is probably exactly what they’re expecting.

4. She’s Out of My League: $9.5 million

This Judd Apatow-esque comedy from first-time director Jim Field Smith, starring Jay Baruchel (Knocked Up) and Alice Eve (Starter for 10) might generate some box office dollars just because college kids are out on spring break and looking for some laughs. Reviews, though, have been cruel and the marketing dollars spent seems to be rather limited.

5. Our Family Wedding: $9 million

Can America Ferrara turn her Ugly Betty success into a film career? She started in film way back in 2002 with the Sundance fave Real Women Have Curves and later appeared in the chick-lit franchise Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants. Now she’s playing a bride whose father, played by comedian Carlos Mencia, spars with her groom’s dad (Forest Whitaker.) The film opens in around 1,500 theaters and is likely to generate only single digits.

Check back this weekend to see how close we got.

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