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Box Office Preview: 'Cop Out' and 'Shutter Island' vie for first place

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cop-out-willis-morganImage Credit: Abbott GenserBruce Willis and Tracy Morgan pairing up for a buddy comedy flick from director Kevin Smith seems like a good idea on paper. But with reviews for Cop Out stuck in the terrible category, this Warner Bros. flick is going to have to actually fight to land the number one slot. It’s not going to help that the Martin Scorsese-Leonardo DiCaprio thriller Shutter Island opened to over $40 million last weekend and should hold on to at least 50% of its gross for its sophomore session. The other new wide release looking for its share of box-office coin is the remake of 1973’s The Crazies, starring Timothy Olyphant and Radha Mitchell. Also interesting this frame is Avatar’s box office performance. Sure the movie has made more than any other in box-office history but this weekend really marks its last official frame in 3-D. The film has had ten weekends all to itself but while Fox tries to fight for 3-D screens, its going to have a tough battle when Disney’s Alice in Wonderland opens next weekend. Read on for my predictions.

1. Shutter Island: $20 million

Shutter Island marks Scorsese and DiCaprio’s most successful opening weekend. How that translates into its second frame is still up for grabs. While reviews for the movie were strong, Cinemscore’s exit scoring was poor at a C+. Still it’s the film with the biggest pedigree in the marketplace right now and it’s likely that it will hold on to the top slot for the weekend.

2. Cop Out: $18 million

Smith’s last outing Zach and Miri Make a Porno opened to a dismal $10 million so Cop Out should be considered a big success in contrast. While the film is an homage to the popular interracial buddy cop films of the ’80s this film seems to confirm that the genre is dead for a reason. There hasn’t been a comedy in theaters for some time so this one could prove to be successful but that will all depend on the audience and what their fickle moods’ demand.

3. The Crazies: $16 million

Audiences have loved all the preview materials the studio has been offering, and a fresh horror film in the market now could do well. This one, from director Breck Eisner, has the potential to work. We’ll see what happens this weekend.

4. Avatar: $11 million

Its tally as of Wednesday is at $691 million, meaning it will definitely cross $700 million this weekend. If you want to see it on 3-D again, go now. (Last weekend 95% of its gross came from 3-D theaters.) Fox is going to try to hold onto as many 3-D screens as possible going into Oscar weekend and the opening of Alice in Wonderland but theaters are expecting big things from Disney and may not be willing to keep many for the film that arguably must be nearing the end of its theatrical run.

5. Valentine’s Day: $7 million

Expect at least a 60% drop this weekend for the star-studded movie that’s grossed almost $90 million in two weeks of release. It’s not good but if you want to see so many stars in one place, and can’t wait for the Oscar telecast next weekend, Valentine’s Day may be the best place to go.