Neither a grown man in a fairy costume, nor Harrison Ford, nor badass avenging angels will be able to topple Avatar, even as James Cameron’s 3-D extravaganza enters its sixth weekend in theaters. Avatar has already grossed more than $500 million domestically and is likely to surpass The Dark Knight‘s cume of $533 million by the close of the weekend. With that, Dwayne Johnson’s The Tooth Fairy, the Harrison Ford-Brendan Fraser medical weepie Extraordinary Measures, and Sony’s supernatural drama Legion will all have to vie for second, third and fourth place, along with holdovers Book of Eli and The Lovely Bones.
Read on for my predictions.
1. Avatar: $34 million
Considering the film dropped only 17% last frame, a mere 20% fall this weekend is not impossible.
2. The Tooth Fairy: $18 million
We’ll find out this weekend if the Dwayne Johnson bad-guy-turns-good schtick still works with audiences. This time around the man formerly known as The Rock transforms from mean hockey player to …. nice Tooth Fairy? Sounds dubious, but with trailers playing on The Squeakquel, a strong opening with family audiences won’t be surprising.
3. Book of Eli: $16 million
With a strong $32 million opening weekend and $43 million already in the bank, Eli should hold on well its second weekend in theaters, even with the extra competition from Legion. Denzel Washington has proven he’s still a movie star.
4. Legion: $12 million
It’s violent and scary! And Biblical! This apocalyptic drama starring Dennis Quaid and Paul Bettany should generate a decent opening weekend gross — especially for a comparatively inexpensive film to make — but it won’t be enough to unseat the big boys. Still, a positive audience reaction could give it legs, er, wings in the coming weeks.
5. Lovely Bones: $9 million
Teenage girls have suddenly powered up this left-for-dead drama from Peter Jackson. With little out there for the girls this weekend, they may come back for more. Expect a 45% drop. The film has grossed $22 million so far.
It’s unlikely Extraordinary Measures will make it into the Top 5 this weekend. With an ad campaign that resembles a made-for-TV movie and with no love from the critics, this Harrison Ford/Brendan Fraser vehicle, which is targeted primarily at adults, is going to have trouble connecting. It’s a tough debut for CBS Films, which enters the theatrical business with this drama.