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Box-office preview: 'Old Dogs' and 'Ninja Assassin' can't touch 'New Moon's' magic

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One would think that with The Twilight Saga: New Moon pulling in over $140 million on opening weekend, the film would be on track for an enormous decline in its second week in theaters. But after reviewing the mid-weeks — those vamps and werewolves brought in over $10 million both Monday and Tuesday — New Moon is still in line to win the number one slot over the Thanksgiving holiday. The other sure thing this weekend is the second frame of the Sandra Bullock-starrer The Blind Side. The feel-good football flick received an astounding A+ from audiences exiting the theater–a score that should portend a minimal drop for the Warner Bros. drama. Fighting for the rest of the top five will be newcomers Old Dogs and Ninja Assassin and holdovers 2012 and Disney’s A Christmas Carol. Check out my predictions below for the three-day frame. And everyone, have a Happy Thanksgiving.

1. The Twilight Saga: New Moon: $57 million

Last year Twilight fell by 62% it’s second round, also on Thanksgiving weekend. I would guess the same thing would happen this time around if it weren’t for these crazy mid-week numbers. As such I’m going to be more aggressive and guess a 60% drop for the weekend. With the exception of The Blind Side, there is little female-skewing fare out there this weekend for women. Nothing can make you forget about a dry turkey like dose of shirtless werewolves.

2. The Blind Side: $29 million

With close to $38 million in the bank for this based-on-a-true story, The Blind Side has turned into one of those surprising holiday films that both men and women are embracing. Some Hollywood prognosticators are guessing for a complete redo of last weekend. I think it’s impossible for the film to not drop at all, though I do believe it will be minimal. I’m guessing a 15% slide. I could be wrong, but this film seems to be just what audiences ordered over this holiday frame.

3. Old Dogs: $20 million

Tracking on this movie suggests some bad news for Disney. But I actually think more people will head out to this movie starring reliable stars: John Travolta and Robin Williams. It’s not going to open to the Wild Hogs numbers of 2007: that film bowed to an astounding $39 million. (There is no connection between the two movies beyond Travolta but I think consumers may believe they are related due to their similar-sounding titles.) I do think it may have a shot at $20 million. It’s one of those innocuous looking films that despite dismal reviews could kill some family time over that long holiday weekend.

4. 2012: $17 million

Roland Emmerich’s end-of-the-world film has grossed $110 domestically and an astounding $348 million overseas. The PG-13 rated pick drop a steep 60% this weekend but should hold on a bit better its third weekend in theaters. It’s a solid good time and moves speedily even at 2 hours and 45 minutes.

5. Ninja Assassin: $16 million

James McTeigue, the Wachowski Bros. protege that brought V for Vendetta to the big screen back in 2005 is back with a high-stylized R-rated action film that could satisfy the male audience that was left out in the cold last weekend. The film stars Korean mega-star Rain which will be quite meaningful overseas. Considering the guy’s face isn’t even shown in the States’ billboards indicates how much he matters here. What does matter is whether or not there’s a good movie here and according to the critics, not so much. Still the bow will be respectable and like some bad side dishes, it will quickly be forgotten.

Also this weekend, Disney is opening The Princess and the Frog in two theaters in New York and Los Angeles. Fox Searchlight is expanding Fantastic Mr. Fox to over 2,000 theaters while The Weinstein Co. opens The Road in over 100 locations.