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BAFTA Awards this Sunday

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Baftaawards_l

Baftaawards_l

In many ways, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards ended up being the most prescient pre-Oscar nominations this year, predicting Oscar’s Best Picture nominees 5-for-5 and being the first major group to place Kate Winslet in the lead-actress race for The Reader. So who’ll win when the BAFTAs are handed out this Sunday? Here’s a look at the major categories.

Best Film
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Button and Slumdog, which tied with 11 nominations, are the only real competitors. I can only assume that Slumdog‘s status as a British production will put it over the top. (Given the voters’ sometimes strange habits, Slumdog could very well win Best Film and lose Best British Film to a lesser-known entry like Hunger or Man on Wire.)

Director
Clint Eastwood, Changeling
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

How can a local boy like Boyle go home empty-handed?

Leading Actor

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Sean Penn, Milk

Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

I really am sensing the momentum going Penn’s way in the overall race. I can’t imagine they’re not feeling it on the other side of the Atlantic too.

Leading Actress

Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long

Meryl Streep, Doubt

Kate Winslet, The Reader

Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

This is the most fascinating category of the night, if you ask me. Yes, Winslet is in danger of vote-splitting. But Doubt‘s poor overall showing (only three nominations) indicates a lack of support for the film. I’d bet on Kate for The Reader.

Supporting Actor

Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder

Brendan Gleeson, In Bruges

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Brad PItt, Burn After Reading

Chalk up another bittersweet win for Ledger.

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Doubt

Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Freida Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire

Tilda Swinton, Burn After Reading

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

With Viola Davis strangely excluded, Cruz has a clear path to victory.

Original Screenplay
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Burn After Reading
J. Michael Straczynski, Changeling
Philippe Claudel, I’ve Loved You So Long
Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
Dustin Lance Black, Milk

If there’s an upset here, it’s McDonagh. But Milk‘s status as the only Best Film nominee in the category bodes well for Black.

Adapted Screenplay
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
David Hare, The Reader
Justin Haythe, Revolutionary Road
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

It’s nice to see Revolutionary Road included here. But it’ll certainly lose as part of a Slumdog mini sweep.