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PGA and SAG this weekend

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Milkcast_l

Milkcast_l

It’s a big award-ceremony weekend coming up, with the Producers Guild awards on Saturday and the Screen Actors Guild awards on Sunday. I’ll be doing a live SAG red-carpet show on tnt.tv and tbs.com starting at 6:15 ET/3:15 PT on Sunday in case you find yourself by a computer and would like to check it out. In the meantime, here are my thoughts about this weekend’s big prizes.

Producers Guild
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

This one seems like a race between Button and Slumdog. The former features two veteran producers (Frank Marshall and Kathy Kennedy) who are accomplished and well-liked but have yet to win a Best Picture Oscar, while the latter was produced by an unassuming Brit (Christian Colson) who’s new to the awards game. It could be close, but Slumdog‘s overall momentum will likely propel it to victory.

Screen Actors Guild

Best Ensemble
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

I think you can eliminate Button and Frost. Doubt did score the most SAG nominations this year but is probably too polarizing to win the award. Slumdog may be the awards favorite in general, but will SAG members give their biggest award to a bunch of kids? I’m going with the ace acting team from Milk.

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Here’s the one category that matched 5 for 5 with the Oscars. And as I believe will happen next month too, Penn will trump Rourke for the win.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Since they didn’t throw much overall support to Revolutionary Road (this category marks its only nomination), I think this is Doubt‘s best shot at a win. Could this be Streep’s big moment of the awards season? I say yes.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

What is there to say? The Heath Ledger train is simply unstoppable.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet, The Reader

According to SAG award rules, studios may dictate in which categories their actors are placed. Hence Winslet’s supporting nod here. After her Broadcast Critics and Golden Globe wins, a third trophy seems inevitable.

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