December 11, 2008 at 09:15 PM EST

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association did its usual thing this morning, honoring prestige dramas (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road, The Reader) while largely overlooking blockbusters (The Dark Knight) and grittier films (Milk). Here’s a rundown of the nominees in the major movie categories. (Also, check out Ken Tucker’s reaction to the TV noms.)

Best Picture, Drama
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

I had heard that the HFPA loved The Reader, so its inclusion here isn’t a surprise. But the omission of Milk is odd given how well it’s done with the New York, L.A., and Broadcast critics. The big story here is Revolutionary Road, which came roaring back into the awards race with four big Globe nominations. I’d say Button is the one to beat.

Best Actor, Drama
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

There were six strong competitors going into this morning’s announcements, and one of them had to be left out. To my surprise, it was Clint Eastwood. At least he got two nominations in the music categories. Any of these five guys could win.

Best Actress, Drama
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

The loser here is Cate Blanchett, who now must fight back for an Oscar slot. I actually think they made the right call with these five. It’s Meryl vs. Kate for the win.

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical
Burn After Reading
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

I’m sad about the omission of Last Chance Harvey, which seemed to me like a sure bet here. But the HFPA created an interesting list of hits (Mamma Mia!) and deserving indies (In Bruges). I’m thinking Vicky takes it home.

Best Actor, Comedy/Musical
Javier Bardem, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Colin Farrell, In Bruges
James Franco, Pineapple Express
Brendan Gleeson, In Bruges
Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey

I expected James Franco to get a Globe nomination this morning…but for Milk, not Pineapple Express. I was worried this race would seem like filler this year, but it really doesn’t. Give the edge to Hoffman.

Best Actress, Comedy/Musical
Rebecca Hall, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Frances McDormand, Burn After Reading
Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia!
Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey

I’m still rubbing my eyes waiting for Sarah Jessica Parker‘s name to appear on this list for Sex and the City given all the Globe love she received while the TV series was on the air. This one’s between Hawkins and Streep, and I think the plucky Brit could win.

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Cruise, Tropic Thunder
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

This category held the most surprises of any this year. Downey for Tropic Thunder, sure. But Tom Cruise? Over Revolutionary Road‘s unforgettable Michael Shannon and any of the Milk guys? The HFPA’s love of big stars got the better of them here. It’s a Hoffman/Ledger rematch at this point.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

These are five worthy women, to be sure, but to leave out Button‘s Taraji P. Henson is to ignore one the most emotionally powerful performances of the year. Cruz and Winslet seem like the frontrunners.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road

Where are Gus Van Sant and Christopher Nolan, you might ask? Well, in a tight race, personality matters. And I guarantee Boyle, Daldry, and Mendes were much more charming to the HFPA than Van Sant and Nolan. My money’s on Fincher or Boyle.

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