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Oscar Watch: Only 172 days to go!

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16578__sunshine_lBefore the fall movie season began, which movies and performers were Oscar contenders? Maybe United 93 and World Trade Center, maybe Little Miss Sunshine (pictured), maybe Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada and Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson. And that was about it. But with the fall movie schedule now pretty firmly in place, it’s easier to focus on the contenders that will make up much of the release slate for the rest of the year. Last month, EW picked such movies as All the King’s Men, Little Children, Flags of Our Fathers, Babel, The History Boys, The Nativity Story, Blood Diamond, Dreamgirls, and The Good Shepherd as movies with Best Picture potential, and noted such possible acting contenders as Vera Farmiga (The Departed), Adam Beach (Flags of Our Fathers), Hellen Mirren (The Queen), Kate Winslet (Little Children), Rinko Kikuchi (Babel), Keisha Castle-Hughes (The Nativity Story), Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond), Matt Damon (The Good Shepherd), and Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland).

Now, here come the awards mavens at Gold Derby with their two cents. In general, I think they’re more generous with their picks (The Holiday and A Good Year? Good luck.), and they place too much credence in the Golden Globes as tastemakers, but it’s still a pretty reasonable list of movies and performers. Check it out and let us know which of their picks you think have a shot at the trophy, and which you’re actually looking forward to seeing on screen.