After conjuring up an astonishing $187 million in its first 10 days, ”Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone” will try to break ”Titanic”’s third-weekend record of $33.3 million. But the boy wizard will need to work some magic, and quick. The Chris Columbus blockbuster fell 36 percent from its first weekend to its second, compared to ”Titanic,” which ROSE in its second weekend. (Of course, when you break the all-time opening record like ”Harry” did, the only way to go is down.) A drop of 42 percent or less will break the record, so it’ll be close. But coming off of last week’s Thanksgiving holiday, a bigger-than-normal dip is likely; look for ”Harry” to fall just short of the all-time high with about $32 million.
The weekend’s only major new release is the war drama ”Behind Enemy Lines,” starring Owen Wilson as a military navigator shot down in Bosnia and Gene Hackman as his superior trying to save him. Twentieth Century Fox’s post-Sept. 11 decision to release the film now as opposed to early next year will turn out to be a smart move; certainly the new date earned the movie tons of media attention (including EW’s latest cover story). The film’s patriotic vibe will ensure good word of mouth, leading to a strong No. 2 debut in the $17 million range.
”Monsters, Inc.” stands to drop one slot to No. 3, despite its incredible strength last weekend, when it actually jumped 6 percent from the previous week. But because many kids have now seen the movie twice, look for business to drop to about $15 million. Still, don’t feel bad for those trolls; they’ll break the $200 million mark in the next few days.
The fourth spot should go to Robert Redford and Brad Pitt’s ”Spy Game,” which debuted respectably last weekend with just over $21 million. A 40 percent drop would translate into a $13 million take. And No. 5 will likely be Martin Lawrence’s disappointingly received comedy ”Black Knight,” which will eke out about $5 million in its second weekend. Hey, at least it’s doing better than ”Out Cold.”
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